Paul Goldschmidt is in line to win his first MVP; Will the honor help him go to the Hall of Fame?

Paul Goldschmidt is in line to win his first MVP;  Will the honor help him go to the Hall of Fame?


The 2022 Major League Baseball season is just seven weeks away, which means there’s plenty of time for things to change. In the 2022 NL MVP race, that could mean a pretty big jockey game. It’s a very close contest with a decent amount of players who have a realistic shot.

Paul Goldschmidt of Cardinals At this point it’s a lead, though. (Caesar Sportsbook lists him as the current favorite with -175 odds.)

The seven-time All-Star has four Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers. He finished third in MVP voting earlier. He is a two-time runner-up. If he gets the job done, this will be his first MVP. Winning the MVP certainly increases your Hall of Fame chances. It’s always nice to be able to flash a little more hardware when voters are considering choices.

Let’s say Goldschmidt wins this year’s MVP and see how his Hall of Fame resume is stacking up.

Price statistics are there. Goldschmidt is a career .295 hitter with a .391 on-base percentage and .528 slugging percentage. His 145 OPS+ and 144 wRC+ show what a well-rounded offensive force he was during his career. Simply put, he hit for average while being good at getting on base and hitting for power.

Now, before we look at the counting statistics, let’s remember that Goldschmidt is still compiling. He’s 34, so he doesn’t have eternity here. With his ball skills, his 34-year-old year and the fact that he is an all-around designated hitter, he will undoubtedly be more effective in the years to come.

Entering play Thursday, Goldschmidt had 1,706 hits, 372 doubles, 309 home runs, 1,019 RBI, 1,020 runs and 145 stolen bases.

The odds here are that Goldschmidt won’t hit the big milestones (3,000 hits or 500 home runs), but he’ll get into the 2,000s in hits and maybe even close to 2,500. He’s a good bet to hit 400 home runs and maybe reach the 450 range. There is a slight chance of reaching 1,500 each in RBI and runs scored.

Accurately predicting where career numbers will end up is extremely difficult. The fact that the 2020 season is so close makes it all the more difficult when we use Bill James’ “favorite toy” as a weapon. We’ll do it anyway and bring the 2020 stats to a full chapter.

This is where Goldschmidt ends.

  • Hits: 2,314
  • Double: 505
  • Home runs: 419
  • Breeder: 1,373
  • Runs: 1,375

It’s important to note that these are calculated as of the end of the 2022 season, so it will be added to each one and then there will be a slight bump in the calculations moving forward each time. It is not correct. This was done to give a little hint.

On a hit, you don’t need 3,000 anyway. In fact, only 13 first basemen have reached 2,500. Jeff Bagwell and Jim Thome are in the 2,300 range.

Only 11 first basemen have hit 500 doubles.

The home run total there may seem low for the position, but only 19 first basemen have hit 400 homers. A spot between Tony Perez and Orlando Cepeda’s 379 to Jeff Bagwell’s 449 seems perfectly acceptable.

As for run production, only seven first basemen in the modern era have hit 1,350 in both runs and RBI: Albert Pujols, Rafael Palmero, Jimmy Fox, Eddie Murray, Lou Gehrig, Bagwell and Todd Helton.

Looking at the looks of current Hall of Fame first basemen, Goldschmidt isn’t too far off from the Hall of Fame in JAWS and WAR as well.

In JAWS he is 21st at first base, a few spots behind the Hall average but ahead of Billy Terry and Harmon Killebrew. Next you’ll see David Ortiz, Perez, Cepeda and more. At his current trajectory, there is a chance that Goldschmidt is an above average Hall of Fame first baseman and joins a team that includes Tome, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Willie McCovey.

Again, that’s only in JAWS. Obviously, there are many other considerations. It’s really a strong company, and it’s a big needle, especially for the generation of Hall voters who decide the fate of Goldschmidt (I’m from the group, to be clear).

MVP also moves the needle. He’s on pace to join good company in census statistics and his career line is impressive.

Goldschmidt doesn’t think deeply about this, but that doesn’t stop me from thinking about it. I believe he is already on the Hall of Fame track and an MVP this season would be a great boost.



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